Prophecy

Prophecy lets you trade on the outcome of real-world events, such as sports, politics and economics. You buy YES or NO tokens with USDC. If your side is right when the market resolves, each token is worth 1 USDC.

The markets are Kalshi markets, brought on chain by DFlow. Fortuna is the place where you browse and trade them.

Before you trade

• You need USDC in your wallet to buy.
• To buy, you must verify your identity once with DFlow Proof. On the trade card, click Verify Identity to Trade. Your wallet signs a message and you are sent to DFlow to finish. You can see prices without verifying.

How to trade

1. Open Prophecy and pick an event. Some events have several markets, one per possible outcome.
2. Choose Buy, then YES or NO.
3. Enter an amount in USDC. The card shows how many tokens you get for it.
4. Confirm and approve the transaction.

The price of a YES or NO token is between 0 and 1 USDC. It roughly shows how likely the market thinks that outcome is. For example, YES at 0.30 USDC means the market gives it about a 30% chance. If YES wins, each YES token you hold redeems for 1 USDC.

Selling

You can sell your tokens at any time before the market resolves, at the current market price. Choose Sell on the trade card and enter how many tokens to sell.

After a market resolves

• Winning tokens: redeem them for 1 USDC each from the trade card. Redemptions can take a couple of hours to open after a market resolves.
• Losing tokens: they are worth nothing. You can burn them to get back the small amount of SOL that their token account holds.

Things to know

• Kalshi has a weekly maintenance window, Thursdays from 3 to 5 AM US Eastern time. Trades placed then may be reverted. The trade card warns you during this window.
• Prices move while you trade. The quote you see is checked again when your transaction lands.
• Fortuna adds a small platform fee to each trade. It is included in the quote you see before you confirm.
• Prophecy trades don't earn Juice at the moment.

Legacy markets

Before the DFlow markets, Prophecy ran its own YES/NO markets in SOL. They are still listed under Prophecy legacy.

They worked like this:

• You bet SOL on YES or NO, at least 0.1 SOL. You could add to your bet until the market's cut-off time.
• All YES bets and all NO bets went into two pools.
• When the market resolved, 3% of the total pool was taken as a fee. Winners shared what was left, in proportion to their bets. A winning bet got back its stake plus its share of the losing pool, less 3%.
• If nobody bet on one side, the market was invalid and every bet was refunded in full.
• You claimed your winnings or refund from the market page.
• Winning or losing stakes in markets that resolved YES or NO earned Juice.